2011 MLB Preview & Predictions

Before the first pitch of the 2011 Major League Baseball season is thrown here are my previews and predictions for the season. A brief preview of where each team sits on Opening Day is provided along with a key player and a prediction on the team's over/under. It also includes predictions on final standings, awards and playoffs. Enjoy and let's discuss.


American League

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox

Might as well start with the team that will begin the season with the best roster on paper. Boston added two dynamic players in the off-season in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. The Red Sox feature one of the most lethal lineups in the game along with a rotation that has the potential to stellar. Maintaining health, some questions in the starting rotation and Jonathan Papelbon's ability to close games are a few factors that could potentially alter the course of the 2011 BoSox.

Key Player: Josh Beckett
Over/Under: 95.5 - OVER

2. New York Yankees*

You would like to think that a payroll that exceeds $200 million would net a starting rotation that is not rounded out by the likes of Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia. While the Yankees will still have one of the most dangerous lineups in the league, their success this year will largely be tied to starting pitching. If the Yankees can hold leads going into the eighth inning, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera should finish the job almost every time. New York finds itself in the unusual position of not being the favorites. Still, with the Yankees, it is always World Series or bust. Even with the pitching unknowns this is a formidable group.

Key Player: A.J. Burnett
Over/Under: 91.5 - UNDER

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay recovered well enough from the losses of Crawford and Carlos Pena by bringing in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez as stopgaps on the cheap. Some have discounted the Rays as a legitimate playoff contender, however I expect them to be in the hunt for a playoff spot late in the season. Every season it feels as though one team would make the playoffs if it was not in the AL East. This year, it seems like the Rays drew the short stick.

Key Player: B.J. Upton
Over/Under: 84.5 - OVER

4. Toronto Blue Jays

I am still trying to figure out exactly how Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos was able to move Vernon Wells' contract especially without having to pay a substantial portion of it. A number of players could breakout and/or return to form on this team. Toronto does not have a good enough roster to compete with the best in this division, but should finish the season over .500 and be the type of team no one will want to play down the stretch in September.

Key Player: Travis Snider
Over/Under: 76.5 - OVER

5. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles brought in a number of veterans during the off-season in an effort to bolster the offense. Baltimore is improved, but ultimately simply lacks the starting pitching depth to compete for a playoff spot. Like the Blue Jays, no one will want to see the Orioles late in the season, especially if the current roster is intact. B-More will battle with Toronto for fourth place in the division and has a decent chance to finish with a record over .500.

Key Player: Brian Matusz
Over/Under: 76.5 - OVER

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox season could go a number of ways. Some questions: Will Gordon Beckham breakout? Will Alex Rios and Paul Konerko repeat or come close to repeating last year? What will Jake Peavy contribute? If things go right, the White Sox could win the Central rather comfortably. The addition of Adam Dunn provides a big time bat in the middle of the lineup. I am betting most things go right for the Chi-Sox and they beat out Minnesota for the division.

Key Player: Gordon Beckham
Over/Under: 85.5 - OVER

2. Minnesota Twins

This seems like a typical Minnesota Twins season. The team will be in the hunt for a playoff spot late in the season. A big question mark for Minnesota this year is the return of Justin Morneau who suffered a concussion last season. If the Twins get Morneau's typical production they have a really good chance of capturing the division. Minnesota is solid and has enough talent to make it to the playoffs again.

Key Player: Justin Morneau
Over/Under: 86 - OVER

3. Detroit Tigers

As far as picking where teams will finish in the standings, the Tigers are one surest bets this year. Probably not quite good enough to really challenge both Chicago and Minnesota, but not nearly bad enough to collapse down to the level of Cleveland and Kansas City. To be successful the starting rotation will have to solid in the back end while Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will have to be a formidable 3-4 combo.

Key Player: Rick Porcello
Over/Under: 84.5 - UNDER

4. Cleveland Indians

The starting rotation will be shaky. Beside Fausto Carmona the Indians do not possess a starter that has started over 16 games in each of the past two seasons. The four remaining starters average less than 27 GS for their entire careers. Outside of pitching, the Indians have the most underrated player in the game in Shin-Soo Choo and two players that can be great in Grady Sizemore and Carlos Santana. You have to wonder if Matt LaPorta will ever be able to live up to the potential.

Key Player: Grady Sizemore
Over/Under: 72 - UNDER

5. Kansas City Royals

Playing the waiting game. The Royals top priority honestly is probably not with the big league club, but with what virtually every person agrees is the strongest farm system in the game. The Royals could infuse the major league team with a young talent from the minor leagues beginning later this season. One of the main goals for Kansas City must be to do everything in its power to assure that that transition is done in a way that allows their prospects to live up to their potential. The major league version of the 2011 Royals simply lacks major league quality in nearly all facets.

Key Player: Alex Gordon
Over/Under: 68.5 - UNDER

AL West

1. Oakland Athletics

The A's have the potential to have one of the top starting rotations in baseball in 2011, but that does not come without question marks. The starters will need to stay healthy and build on past performance. Oakland's offense does not have anyone that will put fear into opposing pitchers. The offense will struggle, but may still produce enough for a division crown.

Key Player: Brett Anderson
Over/Under: 84 - OVER

2. Texas Rangers

Strictly on a talent level, the Rangers should win the AL West. However there are many question marks with this team. The starting rotation now has some big holes after losing Cliff Lee to Philadelphia and Tommy Hunter for at least the beginning of the season. Can Brandon Webb ever get healthy enough to contribute? Texas has immense talent in the field, but would anyone be surprised if Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler all missed significant time to injury? Can Elvis Andrus improve his .356 slugging percentage from last season? What Adrian Beltre will show up? There are a lot of question marks and while I expect the Rangers to be in the hunt, I'll take the team with slightly fewer unknowns and better pitching in a tight September race.

Key Player: Nelson Cruz
Over/Under: 86.5 - OVER

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels could challenge for the division. Anaheim may have a better rotation than Texas and a better offense than Oakland. Jered Weaver will need to at least repeat what he did last year and they will need a Kendrys Morales to return from injury and contribute what he is capable of. The defense in the outfield should be good, but probably not as good as many are making it out to be. Can the 2B, SS, and 3B starters produce more than the 18 combined home runs they achieved last year?

Key Player: Kendrys Morales
Over/Under: 83 - UNDER

4. Seattle Mariners

Seattle is simply one of those teams that does not have enough talent to win a lot games. The offense will struggle mightily again this year. On the bright side, the Mariners have two of the best players in the game in Ichiro Suzuki and last year's Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez. So, if you are a Mariners fan at least you have that to look forward to. The Mariners have to be a little worried about Justin Smoak, the big piece they got in return in the Cliff Lee trade last season.

Key Player: Justin Smoak
Over/Under: 70 - UNDER

National League

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves

That's right. I wavered on this pick for a long time, but ultimately decided to go with Atlanta as the NL East division winners. Atlanta has a lot going for itself going into the season. A very good starting rotation and a lineup that matches up well against any other in the National League. The Braves feature a nice mix of veterans and young players. Although the Braves are not the favorites for the division, they are solid in most areas and do not have too many question marks heading into the season.

Key Player: Jason Heyward
Over/Under: 88 - OVER

2. Philadelphia Phillies*

I feel very different about this team than the night they signed Cliff Lee. There are a bunch of injury concerns and the offense was probably slightly overrated to begin with. The position players are a little on the older side. If Chase Utley is not around late in the season, the Phillies could be in serious jeopardy missing the playoffs altogether. It's not all doom and gloom though. When you're trotting out Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt four out of every five games your team can overcome quite a bit. Line those four up in the playoffs and the opposing team is really in trouble. No one is feeling that sorry for the Phillies these days.

Key Player: Jimmy Rollins
Over/Under: 96.5 - UNDER

3. Florida Marlins

The Marlins feature young talent in the outfield in Mike Stanton, Chris Coghlan, and Logan Morrison. Florida also has a solid enough starting rotation which could improve if Javier Vasquez returns to the type of player he was before he went back to the Yankees last season. Like the Blue Jays and Orioles in the AL East the Marlins could finish over .500 and will be a team you will not want to see in September.

Key Player: Josh Johnson
Over/Under: 82.5 - OVER

4. New York Mets

New York is not without talent. It is a matter of how healthy their players will be and how well the starting rotation will perform. It is not known when Johan Santana will return from injury, but he is needed if the Mets are going to make any kind of run. With the organization in a bad financial situation, it would not be a surprise if trades were in the Mets future this season.

Key Player: Carlos Beltran
Over/Under: 77 - UNDER

5. Washington Nationals

The Nationals made a big splash in the free agent market this past off-season by signing Jayson Werth to a ridiculous 7 year, $126 million contract. Sure, Werth is a fine player, but he was severely overpaid. I do suppose, however, that if you are a team like the Washington Nationals you have to overspend to acquire "star" players. The starting rotation could be OK, but is without Stephen Strasburg who will be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2011. The Nationals are another team that does not have the players to challenge for a playoff spot this season. Washington could finish in fourth place, but that appears to be their ceiling.

Key Player: Jayson Werth
Over/Under: 72.5 - UNDER

NL Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers seem to be going for it all in 2011. Prince Fielder is set to be a free agent and the team traded for Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Milwaukee has serious pop in the middle of the lineup with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Greinke will likely miss about a month with a rib injury. With the additions of the starters the Brewers have a good front end of the rotation. Lastly, Rickie Weeks ability to repeat or build on 2010 is key.

Key Player: Zach Greinke
Over/Under: 86.5 - OVER

2. Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati comes in to 2011 virtually with the same team that won the division in 2010. With the moves Milwaukee made, Cincinnati will likely have to improve on last season. This means that much will have to go right for a second year. Two starter pitchers are already on the DL in Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, but Cincinnati is not without depth there. The Reds should be right there in the end before just missing out on repeating as division champs.

Key Player: Jay Bruce
Over/Under: 86.5 - OVER

3. St. Louis Cardinals

While St. Louis will still be in the group competing for the division the loss of Adam Wainwright is a blow they are most likely not equipped to overcome. Multiple starting pitchers are going to have to improve their performance. The Cardinals organization should be able to handle the Albert Pujols contract situation as well as any organization could possibly be expected to. Pujols' impending free agency is a big story, but I would be surprised if it overshadowed the 2011 Cardinals on the field performance.

Key Player: Jaime Garcia
Over/Under: 83.5 - OVER

4. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are one of four teams that I could see winning this division. Like all others in the division, there are flaws on this team. Chicago has very few reliable players. Aramis Ramirez's health is paramount if the Cubs expect to be in the race late in the year. Additionally, Carlos Zambrano will need to keep his head on straight. A lot will have to go right for the Cubs to be contenders in the division.

Key Player: Aramis Ramirez
Over/Under: 82 - UNDER

5. Houston Astros

Houston is semi-interesting this season, but does not have enough to bypass four teams that have better talent and more going for them. They could be decent or they could much more easily be one of the bottom five teams in MLB. Outside of Hunter Pence, I am not sure what could be counted on from this group. Carlos Lee had the first down year in his entire career last season and could regress further this year. Who is going to step up?

Key Player: Brett Wallace
Over/Under: 71.5 - UNDER

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are a safe bet to continue finishing below .500 and miss out on the playoffs. Take a look at Pittsburgh's starting rotation (Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, and James McDonald) and it is not too hard to figure out how far this team is capable of going. Add a potentially shaky bullpen to the mix and the Pirates may repeat as the team that gives up the most runs in MLB. Pittsburgh can build with a player like Andrew McCutchen, but needs a lot more help.

Key Player: Pedro Alvarez
Over/Under: 67.5 - UNDER

NL West

1. San Francisco Giants

The defending champs have not fallen off much, if at all. The key to the 2011 Giants is their three young position players, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Pablo Sandoval. It is critical that those three players contribute greatly on offense. San Francisco will still be carried by their starting pitching. I went back and forth on the winner of this division before ultimately deciding on San Francisco in a extremely tight race.

Key Player: Pablo Sandoval
Over/Under: 88.5 - OVER

2. Colorado Rockies

In recent years Colorado has made a run in the second half of the season. If things go right they may just barely beat out the rest of the NL West for the division championship. The Rockies feature one of the most dangerous offensive combos in Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. I expect Carlos Gonzalez to be good, but regress more than most would predict. As long as Tulo does not hit the DL, he should be on the short list for NL MVP. The top three in the Rockies rotation can really deal when they are on.

Key Player: Troy Tulowitzki
Over/Under: 87 - OVER

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Like the Rockies, if most things go right for the Dodgers they could be fighting for the division in September. It already looks like luck is not on their side as Los Angeles will start the season with Jon Garland and Vincente Padilla on the DL along with Casey Blake and Jay Gibbons. The roster itself is not as talent rich as San Francisco or Colorado, but features a number of players, namely Matt Kemp, that could be in line for improvement from last season. Starting pitching will have to carry them and their core position players have to be great if the Dodgers are going to have a successful season.

Key Player: Matt Kemp
Over/Under: 84 - OVER

4. San Diego Padres

It's really tough to be exciting for anything if you are a San Diego Padres fan. The team traded its best player, Adrian Gonzalez, in the off-season and is now left with very little. The everyday roster features a number of retreads and no one that is too dangerous. The Padres will rely on their pitching as always, but their best starting pitcher Mat Latos will start the season on the DL. I did not expect San Diego to do much last season, but they really should have won the division. So, you never know.

Key Player: Mat Latos
Over/Under: 75.5 - OVER

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona is in rebuilding mode and is really going to struggle to win games in 2011. The bullpen is improved and will likely be used quite given their starting rotation. The Diamondbacks lack depth and will rely on Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew to carry the team. The D-backs simply lack the players to really be contenders in the division.

Key Player: Chris Young
Over/Under: 72.5 - UNDER

*Wild Card


Playoff Predictions

Division Series

Boston Red Sox over Oakland Athletics in 3 games
Chicago White Sox over New York Yankees in 5 games

Atlanta Braves over Milwaukee Brewers in 4 games
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants in 5 games

League Championship Series

Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox in 6 games

Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies in 7 games

World Series

Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves in 6 games


Award (& Player Performance) Predictions

AL MVP
1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Evan Longoria
5. Robinson Cano

NL MVP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Albert Pujols
3. Prince Fielder
4. Buster Posey
5. Joey Votto

AL Cy Young
1. Jon Lester
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Justin Verlander

NL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Chris Carpenter

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Kyle Drabek
2. Jeremy Hellickson
3. Zach Britton

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Brandon Belt
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Craig Kimbrel

AL Manager of the Year
1. Bob Geren
2. Joe Maddon
3. Terry Francona

NL Manager of the Year
1. Fredi Gonzalez
2. Ron Roenicke
3. Edwin Rodriguez

5 Players Who Will Progress
1. Gordon Beckham
2. Adam Jones
3. Gio Gonzalez
4. Brian Matusz
5. Colby Rasmus

5 Players Who Will Regress
1. Jaime Garcia
2. Jered Weaver
3. Mat Latos
4. Ryan Howard
5. Jonathan Papelbon